Or, the edition in which I eat a little bit of crow and admit I was wrong, or at the very least inadvisedly exaggerating. But wherein I once again pull opinions out of my backside, which I think is also what sportswriters do.
AFC MATCHUPS
Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots.
OK, I'll just get the part out of the way right now where I eat crow and admit my wrong-ness from last week's predictions. I said Tebow basically can't throw. Well, turns out most of the season he hasn't thrown. And he did make some kind of bad-looking throws last weekend against Pittsburgh. The Steelers also really did have a lot of injury problems going in to that game. But credit where it's due, Tebow made some very nice throws when he had to have them. I was also apparently wrong, at least for that one game, when I said that Roethlisberger at 60% is better than Tebow at 100%. But as of this writing, none of the remaining QBs in the playoffs are at 60%, hobbling around on a gimpy ankle and without the services of their starting centers or best running backs. Tebow at 100% can't touch Tom Brady at 100%, and that's what he's getting this week. He apparently can make some nice throws once in a while. But watching him, I don't really *expect* him to, at least not yet. No QB makes every throw but whenever you see Tom Brady throw (or Drew Brees, or Aaron Rodgers, or Joe Flacco, or Eli Manning), you expect it will usually be a pretty good one.
The team with the better QB of course doesn't always win. Denver has a better defense than New England (actually, that was true of most teams this year). And as important as it is that your quarterback play well in the playoffs, no one player wins football games by himself, even a QB. But, I just don't like Denver in this game. I acknowledged that they had a shot last week even though I didn't think they'd win. Pittsburgh was beat up and on the road. The Patriots are pretty healthy and at home. And just about a month ago, the Patriots went on the road to Denver and pretty well kicked the crap out of them. Anything can happen, of course. But in this game I don't think it will.
--Did anybody reading this happen to watch the post-game press conference of the Steelers, with Ben Roethlisberger in that bizarre get-up? Seriously, go Google it up and see if you can find it. Somebody somewhere told him that wearing that hat on TV was a good idea, and that person needs a very stern talking-to.
Houston Texans vs. Baltmore Ravens. Honestly I think this game is even easier to call. Nothing much jumped out at me about the Texans vs. Bengals game last week except that the Bengals didn't play well and Houston played well enough to win. Other than that, I was sort of "meh." I hate the Ravens but they are tough. Tough, tough, tough. Somebody remind them that their defense is supposedly over the hill because they haven't gotten the memo. Like the Packers and the Saints, they haven't yet lost at home this season. Their offense isn't a high-flying machine but they can generally get it done. When your defense is that stingy, you don't have throw 5 TDs a game to win. I'd be shocked if they had any trouble at all in this one.
--I was pleasantly surprised by the fact that there were no political ads last weekend. None! Whee! Will that be true this weekend? We can only hope!
And now, moving on to....
THE NFC MATCHUPS
New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers.
Both the NFC games are a lot tougher to call than either of the AFC games. The Saints had some real trouble with the Lions last week--in the first half. Then they came back and just rolled the second half for an ultimately pretty easy win. The whole season, they've been basically the same team as the Packers: a defense that gives up frankly too many points, but for the fact that offensively they are a jaw-dropping machine. However.....This week they're away from the Crazydome (and as I told my friend Erika, I mean that with a certain amount of respect and admiration. Crazy in a fun way, you know.). They're probably going to be on a slowish surface at Candlestick--certainly slower than their home turf. And they're going to be facing one of the top defenses in the league. The 49ers don't give up any more points than the Ravens do, especially at home. Still, though, doesn't sound like weather is going to be much of a factor in this game. It may not be the dome but it won't be a cold rainy mud pit either. And the 49ers didn't exactly have to play a lot of offensive juggernauts, though they did beat some good teams. This will be an interesting game to watch, I think. I'm going to predict a Saints win here but I wouldn't be at all shocked if it doesn't happen.
Fun fact: 7 out of the 32 teams in the NFL don't have cheerleaders. 4 of them made the playoffs this year.
New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers. Somehow I feel that I should exempt myself from making a pick in this one. As I thought I would after last week's Giants/Falcons game, I've now managed to get myself good and worried during the week over this one. My first reaction watching the Giants last week was that I was underwhelmed. They looked pretty good, as they certainly should, but Atlanta just looked bad, like they were not at all ready in that one. And the Giants took advantage of some pretty bad play-calling by Atlanta coach Mike Smith. I've definitely seen the Giants play pretty crappy football this year but they're not currently playing crappy football. And their defense is looking pretty darn good. They're not going to be scared of Lambeau field. The Packers barely managed to eke out a last-minute win over the Giants when the two teams played several weeks ago. And of course the Packers this week got rocked by the horrible news that the son of their offensive coordinator, the man who does the play-calling, was drowned in an icy river over the weekend, making it hard to know what their emotional state will be at game time. Maybe it's for those reasons that a lot of sports pundit types have made this game their sexy upset pick for the weekend.
I'm going to have faith. Rodgers will have to play well. I'd like to see the Packers get their running game up and going a bit more than they have this season. And while the Packer defense has been numbers-wise pretty mediocre this season they have been opportunistic in the turnover department. That will probably have to happen today. I'm going to predict a Packer win in this one, but again, I would not be shocked to see things go the other way. I would, however, be despondent.
Go Pack.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Saturday, January 7, 2012
A Liberal Chick's Somewhat-Flip Guide to the First Round of the NFL Playoffs
OK, so NFL playoffs get under way this weekend. Of course, for this Packer fan, they don't really get under way until *next* weekend, but what the hey. Playoffs, my favorite time of year! So, here is my analysis--which is to say, what I've pulled out of my butt--interspersed with a few other observations.
AFC MATCHUPS
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans. Who cares? Next.
Oh, OK, I'll actually say something about it. Texans could be a feared opponent if all their quarterbacks weren't hurt. Midway through the season they absolutely slaughtered the Browns. Now, the Browns admittedly are quite bad, but only on offense. They have one of the NFL's better defenses. And the Texans lit them up. But that was before everybody got hurt. The fact that the Texans last week had to resort to using Jake Delhomme tells you all you need to know. As it is, I think they're a little better than Cincinnati plus they're at home so they'll probably win. But it doesn't matter because the winner of this will simply turn around next weekend and get curb-stomped by the Ravens (if it's Houston) or the Patriots (if it's Cincinnati). So, who cares? Next.
--Now that the primary season is under way and the president has no primary challenger, I'm going to be subjected every time I turn on the tube to 500 commercials for presidential candidates I despise. Hopefully they'll all be attacking each other. Which will still be annoying but kind of entertaining too.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos. Heh. OK, I can't help it, this makes me laugh some. And I say that knowing I have Facebook friends who are fans of both teams, so I mean no great offense. First of all, though the Packers are by far #1 in my heart, I'm also a Browns fan. As such, I'm contractually obligated to hate or at least dislike the Steelers, even if as a late-comer, non-native, Packer fan I can't do it with true Browns fan envy-tinged bitterness. And Tebow just doesn't do it for me, sorry. The relatively little I've seen him play this year I've thought, man. This guy sucks. He may be a great guy with a great work ethic and all, but it's generally considered a desirable skill in an NFL quarterback to be able actually to throw the football. Dude can't throw. Admittedly the Steelers are pretty badly banged up now with a bunch of key players out (like their starting center and their best running back), which given that Denver's defense is pretty good is the only thing that gives the Broncos a shot. And Roethlisberger is gimping around on a bad ankle. But, sorry, I got no love for the guy but Roethlisberger at 60% is better than Tebow at 100%, especially Tebow playing against the Steeler defense. Steelers are not in good shape but they're in good enough shape to beat Denver I think. Unless God once again decides to intervene, as various sports pundits apparently decided happened earlier in the season.
--OK, I've added a little bit of padding to the ol' stadium cushion over the course of the year, if you get my drift. I should totally get back onto the Weight Watchers regimen. But man, during playoffs, do I ever like to sit on the couch and drink beer. I mean, I like that all year sure, but especially during playoffs.
And now, on to.....
NFC MATCHUPS
Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints. Whooo-eeee! This could be a fun one. I would think the Saints win this one in a walk. The much-vaunted Detroit defense has been more or less MIA the past few weeks. They got 45 points hung on them last week by the Packers' backup quarterback, in a game where only Detroit was actually playing for anything. The Saints have I would argue the second-best offense in the NFL, and it's second-best by a nose hair (others would argue the Saints are actually the best offense). They've been unbeatable at home this year, including having no real trouble from Detroit back in early December. I suppose I should be rooting for Detroit to win this one (and, you know, anything can happen, blah blah blah) and take out the Saints, but a) I can't quite bring myself to do it, and b) I don't think it matters anyway because unless The Almighty Breezus and Daren Sproles break each others' ribs on a freak collision in the first quarter and are out for the game or something, I don't think Detroit has much of a shot. Vegas has the Saints as the biggest favorite of the week (10.5 points) for a reason.
--Anybody care to guess what the ratio of political ads to beer commercials will be? I'm going to guess 2 or 3 political ads per 5 beer commercials. Ohio's primary isn't until Super Tuesday, so it won't be quite as bad here as it is for folks watching in, say, South Carolina. It will get worse in about a month.
Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants. Not sure honestly what to make of this one. The Falcons are a team that I haven't seen play a whole lot this year--mostly little snippets interspersed with other games. I think I watched most of the Sunday Night game against Philadelphia and they looked pretty good, but that was all the way back in like early September I think. Other than that I haven't seen them much. I've watched the Giants a fair amount recently and they look pretty schizophrenic. Sometimes they look great and then sometimes they're just laughable. So, I don't know. I guess if I'm going to pick an upset this week this one would make sense. And I haven't yet, so I'll pick this one. Falcons, which will make my husband happy.
OK. That's it. So what sort of dip should I make?
AFC MATCHUPS
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans. Who cares? Next.
Oh, OK, I'll actually say something about it. Texans could be a feared opponent if all their quarterbacks weren't hurt. Midway through the season they absolutely slaughtered the Browns. Now, the Browns admittedly are quite bad, but only on offense. They have one of the NFL's better defenses. And the Texans lit them up. But that was before everybody got hurt. The fact that the Texans last week had to resort to using Jake Delhomme tells you all you need to know. As it is, I think they're a little better than Cincinnati plus they're at home so they'll probably win. But it doesn't matter because the winner of this will simply turn around next weekend and get curb-stomped by the Ravens (if it's Houston) or the Patriots (if it's Cincinnati). So, who cares? Next.
--Now that the primary season is under way and the president has no primary challenger, I'm going to be subjected every time I turn on the tube to 500 commercials for presidential candidates I despise. Hopefully they'll all be attacking each other. Which will still be annoying but kind of entertaining too.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos. Heh. OK, I can't help it, this makes me laugh some. And I say that knowing I have Facebook friends who are fans of both teams, so I mean no great offense. First of all, though the Packers are by far #1 in my heart, I'm also a Browns fan. As such, I'm contractually obligated to hate or at least dislike the Steelers, even if as a late-comer, non-native, Packer fan I can't do it with true Browns fan envy-tinged bitterness. And Tebow just doesn't do it for me, sorry. The relatively little I've seen him play this year I've thought, man. This guy sucks. He may be a great guy with a great work ethic and all, but it's generally considered a desirable skill in an NFL quarterback to be able actually to throw the football. Dude can't throw. Admittedly the Steelers are pretty badly banged up now with a bunch of key players out (like their starting center and their best running back), which given that Denver's defense is pretty good is the only thing that gives the Broncos a shot. And Roethlisberger is gimping around on a bad ankle. But, sorry, I got no love for the guy but Roethlisberger at 60% is better than Tebow at 100%, especially Tebow playing against the Steeler defense. Steelers are not in good shape but they're in good enough shape to beat Denver I think. Unless God once again decides to intervene, as various sports pundits apparently decided happened earlier in the season.
--OK, I've added a little bit of padding to the ol' stadium cushion over the course of the year, if you get my drift. I should totally get back onto the Weight Watchers regimen. But man, during playoffs, do I ever like to sit on the couch and drink beer. I mean, I like that all year sure, but especially during playoffs.
And now, on to.....
NFC MATCHUPS
Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints. Whooo-eeee! This could be a fun one. I would think the Saints win this one in a walk. The much-vaunted Detroit defense has been more or less MIA the past few weeks. They got 45 points hung on them last week by the Packers' backup quarterback, in a game where only Detroit was actually playing for anything. The Saints have I would argue the second-best offense in the NFL, and it's second-best by a nose hair (others would argue the Saints are actually the best offense). They've been unbeatable at home this year, including having no real trouble from Detroit back in early December. I suppose I should be rooting for Detroit to win this one (and, you know, anything can happen, blah blah blah) and take out the Saints, but a) I can't quite bring myself to do it, and b) I don't think it matters anyway because unless The Almighty Breezus and Daren Sproles break each others' ribs on a freak collision in the first quarter and are out for the game or something, I don't think Detroit has much of a shot. Vegas has the Saints as the biggest favorite of the week (10.5 points) for a reason.
--Anybody care to guess what the ratio of political ads to beer commercials will be? I'm going to guess 2 or 3 political ads per 5 beer commercials. Ohio's primary isn't until Super Tuesday, so it won't be quite as bad here as it is for folks watching in, say, South Carolina. It will get worse in about a month.
Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants. Not sure honestly what to make of this one. The Falcons are a team that I haven't seen play a whole lot this year--mostly little snippets interspersed with other games. I think I watched most of the Sunday Night game against Philadelphia and they looked pretty good, but that was all the way back in like early September I think. Other than that I haven't seen them much. I've watched the Giants a fair amount recently and they look pretty schizophrenic. Sometimes they look great and then sometimes they're just laughable. So, I don't know. I guess if I'm going to pick an upset this week this one would make sense. And I haven't yet, so I'll pick this one. Falcons, which will make my husband happy.
OK. That's it. So what sort of dip should I make?
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